Facts You Need To Know About Two-Wheelers
Two-wheelers have and will continue to lead the EV revolution.
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Today—and for the next several issues—I am going to talk about two-wheeler vehicles: motorcycles, scooters and mopeds.
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This entire miniseries is dedicated to making one argument: The EV revolution will be led by two-wheelers.
A sampler of topics to expect in the coming issues:
How China built the world’s largest vehicle electrification program to date, through two-wheelers
India’s two-wheeler mega factories, and how the country is gearing up to electrify the world’s largest two-wheeler fleet
Gogoro’s journey to become Taiwan’s first unicorn startup, by building the world’s largest largest battery swapping network
And potentially more...
As for today’s issue, I will use five statistics to lay out just how large, how electrified, and how fast-(r)evolving the two-wheeler market is.
70 million sales a year.
70 million motorized two-wheelers were sold in 2020 worldwide. This is on par with the global passenger car market, which shrank down to about 70 million unit new sales in the year of the pandemic.
To note here: it’s harder to pinpoint exactly how many two-wheelers are sold, given that the market is less regulated, and that line between a moped and an e-bike can be quite blurry at times. However, one thing is clear: the two-wheeler market is huge one.
3 populous countries drive the demand.
The majority of the two-wheeler demand comes from three countries—not just any country, but three of the world’s most populous countries: India, China, and Indonesia.
In these three countries, more people own motorcycles, scooters or mopeds than they own cars. In India, one in three households own a two-wheeler. In Indonesia, two in five people own a two-wheeler. Even in China, where the rate of car ownership is rapidly catching up, the two-wheeler market, especially the electric two-wheeler segment, continues to steadily grow.
Where there is a large, dense and price-conscious population, there is a booming two-wheeler market.
35% of new sales are electric, already.
35% of the new two-wheelers sold globally are electric, far ahead of the 5% EVs among new passenger cars.
One word explains the high rate of electrification in two-wheelers: China.
China started turning its two-wheeler fleet electric in the early 2000s, right around the time when the SARS pandemic hit. Now, 250 million electric two-wheelers run on Chinese roads, more than 70% of new two-wheeler sales are electric, and the COVID pandemic has catalyzed new consumer demand.
Seeds are already sowed for massive transformations—like the one in China—in Taiwan, Vietnam, India and the rest of Asia.
Million-unit factories slated to come on line.
Electric car companies are building giga factories. Electric two-wheeler companies are building mega factories.
… And India is leading the charge. Since late 2020, Ola Electric, Ampere Electric, Hero Electric, Bajaj Auto and Ather Energy have all announced plans to rapidly expand two-wheeler EV production facilities in the coming years.
India now makes more than 20 million gasoline two-wheelers and 150,000 electric two-wheelers a year. Less than 1% of the new two-wheeler sales are electric today, but this could change very soon. When operating in full, these planned new factories could bring on line a combined production capacity of 13 million units a year, all electric. The intention to turn the entire fleet electric is very clear.
The largest battery swapping network worldwide.
A little known fact: Gogoro, a two-wheeler mobility platform company, currently runs the world’s largest battery swapping network—2,000 stations, servicing more than 350,000 riders and managing more than 250,000 battery swaps every day, on the island of Taiwan. In some Taiwanese cities, there are already more Gogoro stations than gas stations.
While the island territory of Taiwan may not be a large enough market to grab international headlines, Gogoro’s next two markets, India and China, surely will. Gogoro is entering into India through an alliance with Hero MotoCorp, the world’s largest two-wheeled vehicle manufacturer. The company is also entering into China, through an alliance with Yadea, the world’s largest electric two-wheeler manufacturer.
The world’s largest battery swapping network is about to become much, much larger.
Postscript:
It took about a decade for China to develop, build, and massively scale its electric two-wheeler production. Now, China makes more electric two-wheelers than gasoline ones.
It took about a decade for Gogoro to develop, build, and massively scale its battery swapping network. Now, in some Taiwanese cities, there are more Gogoro stations than gasoline ones.
The electrification of two-wheeled vehicles is happening at a breakneck speed. Only the internet, cellphones, and color TVs have witnessed adoption curves quite like this.
And all signals are suggesting that the pace of developing, building, and massively scaling hasn’t slowed a bit.
Low cost charging systems, especially for two and three wheelers will further accelerate the EV adoption. This is happening in India where prices of charging station are expected to drop from current $250 to under $50, via a recently announced Government-Industry partnership. Fingers crossed.